Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy
5th Joint BoC - ECB - NY Fed Conference
1 and 2 October 2024
Frankfurt am Main
Building on the success of the previous editions, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are organising the fifth joint conference on expectations surveys. The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.
SpeakersPHOTOS
High-quality images of the conference are available via Flickr.
Programme
* Indicates the presenter
- 08:30
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Registration and coffee
- 09:00
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Welcome speech
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
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Session 1 – Information frictions and central bank communication
Session chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
- 9:15
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Show and Tell: The Effects of Seeing, Hearing and Perceiving Central Bank Messages
- Michelle Alexopoulos, University of Toronto
- Xinfen Han, Bank of Canada
- Xu Zhang*, Bank of Canada
- 9:45
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What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us about Monetary Non-Neutrality?
- Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University
- Joel Flynn, Yale University
- Choongryul Yang*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
- 10:15
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Do Firm Expectations Respond to Monetary Policy Announcements?
- Federico Di Pace, Bank of England
- Giacomo Mangiante*, Banca d’Italia
- Riccardo Maria Masolo, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
- 10:45
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Coffee break
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Session 2 – Beliefs, trading and financial markets
Session chair: Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
- 11:00
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Mental Models of the Stock Market
- Peter Andre, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research
- Philipp Schirmer*, University of Bonn
- Johannes Wohlfart, University of Cologne
- 11:30
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The Impact of Beliefs on Credit Markets: Evidence from Rating Agencies
- Gregory Weitzner, McGill University
- Chen Wang*, University of Notre Dame
- 12:00
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Inflation and Trading
- Philip Schnorpfeil, Goethe University Frankfurt
- Michael Weber*, University of Chicago
- Andreas Hackethal, Goethe University Frankfurt
- 12:30
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Buffet lunch
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Session 3 – Firms, investment decisions and climate
Session chair: Ursel Baumann, European Central Bank
- 14:00
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The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation
- Ivan Yotzov*, Bank of England
- Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
- Philip Bunn, Bank of England
- Paul Mizen, King's College
- Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham
- 14:30
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The Impact of Interest: Firms’ Investment Sensitivity to Interest Rates
- Lea Best, ifo Institute Munich
- Benjamin Born*, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
- Manuel Menkhoff, ifo Institute and LMU Munich
- 15:00
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Climate Transition Beliefs
- Marco Ceccarelli, VU Amsterdam
- Stefano Ramelli*, University of St Gallen
- 15:30
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Coffee break
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Session 4 – Monetary policy, heterogeneity and inflation expectations
Session chair: Ioannis Ganoulis, European Central Bank
- 15:45
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Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Optimism
- Oliver Pfäuti, The University of Texas at Austin
- Fabian Seyrich*, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
- Jonathan Zinman, Dartmouth College
- 16:15
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Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs
Damjan Pfajfar* and Fabian Winkler, both Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
- 16:45
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How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues
- Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
- Marta Leva, Stanford University
- Raphael Schoenle*, Brandeis University
- Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University
- 17:15
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Coffee break
- 17:30
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Keynote – Financial Literacy: Why Should Central Banks Care
Annamaria Lusardi, Stanford University
Keynote chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 18:30
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Poster Session
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Tracking Euro Area Wage Growth with the CES
Katarzyna Bankowska, Pedro Baptista*, Colm Bates, Maarten Dossche, Omiros Kouvavas and Athanasios Tsiortas, all European Central Bank
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House Price Perceptions and the Housing Wealth Effect
Louiza Bartzoka*, Copenhagen Business School
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Why Greek Consumers Are Pessimistic about Their Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the CES
Evangelos Charalambakis*, Bank of Greece
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Inflation Expectations and Economic Preferences
Maximilian Floto*, Leibniz University Hannover
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Identifying Macroeconomic Shocks Using Firm-Level Data: Material Shortages in the German Manufacturing Sector
Friederike Fourné* and Lara Zarges, both ifo Institute
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The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Spending
- Johannes Fischer, Deutsche Bundesbank
- Christoph Herler*, Bank of England
- Philip Schnattinger, Bank of England
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Beyond Groceries: Financial Confidence and the Gender Gap in Inflation Expectations
Lovisa Reiche*, University of Oxford
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Spillovers in Macroeconomic Expectations and Labor Supply: Implications for Wage-Price Spirals
Vitaliia Yaremko*, Trinity College Dublin
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End of first conference day
- 19:30
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Dinner – by invitation only
- 9:30
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Registration and coffee
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Session 5 – Geopolitical shocks, uncertainty and expectations
Session chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank
- 9:45
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Do Election Shocks Affect Economic Expectations?
Olivier Armantier, Gizem Kosar, Giorgio Topa* and Wilbert van der Klaauw, all Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 10:15
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The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households’ Beliefs and Actions
- Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin
- Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
- Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
- 10:45
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Households' Subjective Expectations: Disagreement, Common Drivers and Reaction to Monetary Policy
- Stefano Pica, Banca d’Italia
- Clodomiro Ferreira*, Banco de España
- 11:15
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Coffee break
- 11:30
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Policy panel
Chair: Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
Panellists:
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
- Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
- Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 13:00
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Buffet lunch
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Session 6 – Trade, firms and expectations measurement
Session chair: Maarten Dossche, European Central Bank
- 14:30
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The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations
- Martha Elena Delgado, Inter American Development Bank
- Juan Herreno, University of California, San Diego
- Marc Hofstetter, Universidad de los Andes and CEDE
- Mathieu Pedemonte*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- 15:00
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The Coherence Side of Rationality: Theory and evidence from firm plans
Pamela Giustinelli* and Stefano Rossi, both Bocconi University
- 15:30
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A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations
- Olga Goldfayn-Frank*, Deutsche Bundesbank
- Pascal Kieren, Heidelberg University
- Stefan Trautmann, Alfred-Weber-Institute
- 16:00
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Coffee break
- 16:15
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Keynote – Reference Dependence in the Housing Market: Preferences and Beliefs
Tarun Ramadorai, Imperial College London
Keynote chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank
- 17:15
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End of conference
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.
General information
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
English
Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.
- Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Maarten Dossche, European Central Bank
- Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
- Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
- Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
- Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
- Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
- Jason Somerville, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Tao Wang, Bank of Canada
Ana Maria Borlescu
SurveyExpectations@ecb.europa.eu